Oil Market Conditions in the Fourth Quarter of 2022
Entering the fourth quarter of 2022, the U. S. soybean bumper, Brazil is expected to yield, global soybean supply is sufficient. American beans and soybean oil recovered and fluctuated in July and August after a sharp fall in June. Malaysia and Indonesia have sufficient supply of palm oil, and Canadian rapeseed is also a high yield. On the whole, the global supply of palm oil is sufficient, Malaysian palm oil futures prices continue to weaken, and Canadian rapeseed futures prices also show a downward trend.
Soybean
Soybean is the most important oil crop in the world, and this year's yield has basically been achieved. According to its September report, the 2022 / 23 soybean planted 87.5 million acres, of which 86.6 million acres were produced 4.378 billion bushels, about 119 million tons. Although the reported sown area and yield were lower from the August report, they did not change the yield. South American soybeans are also entering the sowing period, with Brazil expecting 149 million tons in 2022 / 23, and 51 million tons in Argentina.
Rapeseed
Global rapeseed production is also sufficient this year, with Canada as the largest rapeseed producer. Statistics Canada reporting in September of 19.1 million tons in 2022 / 23, much higher than 13.8 million tons in 2021 / 22. Australia will produce 5.2 million tonnes of rapeseed in 2022 / 23, and 18.1 million tonnes.
Palm Oil
Entering September, palm oil production in Southeast Asia gradually entered its peak. According to the Malaysian MPOB report in September, Malaysian palm oil production reached 1.73 million tons, and the final inventory reached 2.09 million tons, the highest inventory in nearly two years. Indonesia, another major palm oil producer, has long remained high.
American Bean and Soybean Oil Price Trend Analysis
This year's American soybean yield has basically been achieved, and the Brazilian soybean production outlook is also more optimistic, so the soybean supply situation is relatively good. After the futures price plunged in June, it continued to fluctuate in July and August, mainly caused by the speculation of weather and other factors. However, with the determination of production, the global soybean price will become a trend, and it is expected that the price in the fourth quarter. The price of soybean oil is similar to that, which began to recover in July after a sharp drop in June. With the high yield of American beans, the supply of soybean oil will also be guaranteed, so the price of soybean oil on the whole will still be mainly volatile and weak trend in the fourth quarter.
Data source: Bk agricultural intelligent data terminal
Analysis of the Price Trend of Rapeseed and Palm Oil
Canola futures in Canada have been weakening since falling sharply in June. With the strong Canadian rapeseed yield, the supply of Canadian rapeseed is also ensured, so the Canadian rapeseed futures prices are still mainly weak. The price of Malaysian palm oil has also been falling since it fell sharply in June. Palm oil prices will continue to weaken mainly as Malaysian palm oil production increases and palm oil inventories in both Indonesia and Malaysia.
