Edible Oil Market Outlook In 2025: Supply And Demand Further Tighten, Prices May Remain High
Edible Oil Market Outlook in 2025: Supply and Demand Further Tighten, Prices May Remain High
The global oilseed supply pattern will remain ample in 2025, but it is difficult for the increase in oilseeds in the crushing field to increase synchronously, resulting in the increase in vegetable oil supply to be less than that of oilseeds. The industrial consumption of vegetable oil will continue to increase, further tightening the supply and demand pattern of vegetable oil, and the center of gravity of vegetable oil prices is expected to remain at a high level.
The global soybean production has increased significantly, making the global oilseed supply pattern ample in 2025. However, due to production capacity constraints, it is difficult for the increase in oilseeds in the crushing field to increase synchronously, resulting in the increase in vegetable oil supply to be less than that of oilseeds. And under the influence of biodiesel policies such as Indonesia and the European Union, the industrial consumption of vegetable oil will continue to increase, further tightening its supply and demand pattern, and the center of gravity of vegetable oil prices is expected to remain at a high level.
In terms of soybean oil, the global soybean supply and demand has further turned to easing, but there is still uncertainty in Sino-US trade in the later period. Given that the concentrated sales period of US soybeans has passed, the impact on my country's imported soybean supply in the first half of 2025 is relatively weak, and the overall supply of soybean oil is relatively ample.
As for rapeseed and sunflower oil, China has launched an anti-dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, and the risk point is the Sino-Canadian trade issue. Putting aside this risk factor, the decline in rapeseed production in the European Union and sunflower seeds in the Black Sea region may increase the demand for rapeseed oil, and the center of gravity of international rapeseed prices is expected to rise, and rapeseed oil prices are strongly supported.
As for palm oil, there is a supply growth bottleneck caused by aging trees in the long run, and low inventory support brought by El Niño in 2024 in the near future. There is also uncertainty on the demand side due to Indonesia's B40 plan, and the supply and demand themes are diverse. In the future, we will focus on the inventory rhythm of the production area. As long as the accumulation of inventory in the production area is not obvious, the price of palm oil is expected to remain high.
